baiting 2p

so haven't posted in a while; have gone through the threads a bit and didn't see this discussed at any great length, but apologies if i missed something.i think i brought this up earlier but have been going back into the game more seriously and wanted to post for analysis and opinions.

so it seems the general consensus is that one of sarah's few genuine advantages over the rest of the cast is in punishing 2p. 8k in particular leads to at least 50 damage (3pk) or better if the stagger escape fails.

edit: on counter a FL k+gk or 6k+g looks to be inescapable, but is escapable if you just catch them crouching. so basically if you call a low punch with 8k you get 90+ damage guaranteed.

she also has the option of using 8k+g or 9k+g from normal stance, or FL 4k from flamingo. so it seems in your interest to set up situations where an opponent really, really wants to 2p and to make them pay accordingly. sadly, 9k+g seems to be basically useless for this purpose since it doesn't low crush until at least 12 frames in (please correct if i'm wrong here...). so that leaves 8k and 8k+g as viable 2p punishers after a bait, with FL 4k more of an "escape" option.

8k: by far the best 2p punish in terms of damage potential. from what i can tell, 8k crushes 2p at anything up to -3 disadvantage. as if by design, many, many situations where a 2p is one of the best ways out of pressure are -3 or better on block: notably, 3p, kp, 6kp, 6p+k3p, k+g, 6k+g, and BT p and k. 3kk is also -3 on nh.

- kp and 6kp are particularly interesting as they are FS transition moves, meaning a savvy opponent's best option to avoid FS pressure/sabaki is to 2p. 8k will disabuse them of this notion quickly.

- 3p and k+g have high followups into flamingo with advantage on block. again, many players are likely to want to try to 2p the follow-up, particularly if you establish the "habit" of abusing 3pk.

-6p+k3p, BT k or p: these might be somewhat less useful situations for 8k. however, since your opponent has almost no choice but to stand or block after 6p+k3p, a followup like 8k makes a lot of sense if your opponent might panic 2p in response to a flamingo cancel from 6p+k3pk.

8k+g: not sure if this is common knowledge, but 8k+g is airborne from the first frame. i didn't realize this till testing last night. this means that unless you are at -12, 8k+g crushes 2p every time. while the damage isn't great, it's better than nothing and disrupts your opponent's game plan. unfortunately, there's only one or two situations where really late 2p crushes might be useful, but they're good ones:

- 2p+k/BT 2p+k: this is another situation where ducking or 2p mess up sarah's follow-up option basically for free. however, since 8k+g crushes 2p even at the -10/-8 disadvantage here, it's no longer guaranteed to just go for 2p (or arguably any low) to avoid the followup launcher. additionally, 8k+g has a chance of catching someone who ducks and waits out the followup or who evades to the wrong side. this in turn improves your chances of doing something like 2p+k to throw or other attack successfully.

- FL kk2k/1k: much as with 2p+k, the high followup discourages most immediate counters but encourages a 2p or crouch response. at -9 on block, 8k is obviously a poor option but 8k+g fills the bill nicely.

- ppp, 6p+kp, 3k, 9k+gk, FL k+g: sort of variations of the above situations; many opponents are likely to want to 2p or crouch to avoid FS/launch/flamingo cancel pressure, and you're at too much disadvantage for 8k to work. less likely for 3k, but might happen if they panic at flamingo cancels and is safer than 3kk on block.

edit: 8k+g might be useful after 1k+g on hit if your opponent likes to immediately 2p or just duck for the whiff. you're screwed if it's blocked though.

FL 4k: so this is mostly useful if you're not at +4 or better in FL and can't or don't want to risk the flipkick or sabaki. it is half-circular to the opposite site of 3p, meaning that it's a good choice to catch people who know how to evade against flamingo. On hit, it looks like your best followup options are 3p or FL k+g (but not FL k+gk, as the second k whiffs); unless your opponent charges you, I can't seem to get anything else to connect reliably.

edit: FL 4k countering an evade gives a +8 at point-blank range, so basically whatever you want to do.

Any thoughts on better followups here would be appreciated!

Thoughts?