The casual bubble... bursts

Nintendo Starts to Cool Down

PS3 Console & Games Eclipse Wii in Japan as Casual Gamers Lose Some Enthusiasm

TOKYO—After years of videogaming success, Nintendo Co. is beginning to look vulnerable. Sales of its Wii console were eclipsed by a rival game system in the key Japanese market in March for the first time in 16 months. Meanwhile, sales of Nintendo games, which have long been top sellers in Japan, have fallen behind new titles targeted at hardcore gamers in recent months.

The shifts mark a new, worrisome trend for Nintendo, whose profit and sales have surged in recent years. Its success has been largely driven by the 2006 release of the Wii, which expanded the game market to casual players with a motion-sensing controller that ushered in a selection of games such as bowling and tennis.

But analysts say there are signs that the enthusiasm of casual Japanese videogame players who underpinned Wii’s growth is starting to wane. Casual players aren’t stocking up on extra games, at least not at the pace that hardcore gamers do, because casual players often are content to play the same titles over and over.

“The Japanese market is not very strong right now overall. So we need to do something to re-energize it,” Nintendo President Satoru Iwata said in an interview. Earlier this year, he said recent casual games such as Wii Music and Animal Crossing, a social simulation game aimed at casual players, had failed to revive the Wii market in Japan and didn’t live up to expectations.

Japan is crucial for Nintendo and rivals Sony Corp. and Microsoft Corp. It is the world’s second-largest game market after the U.S., accounting for about $5.5 bill ion in sales in the 12 months ended March 29, according to Enterbrain, a research firm and magazine publisher.

What’s more, Japan tends to be an early indicator for global consumer trends. Japanese consumers were at the forefront of the shift to casual games. Unconventional titles for Nintendo’s handheld DS machine, such as Brain Age and Nintendogs, first became hits in Japan and the market is still seen as an early testing ground for new concepts.

“The usual idea is that whatever you see happening in Japan, you tend to see overseas two to three years later,” said Hiroshi Kamide, an analyst at KBC Securities in Tokyo.

Sachiyo Kaneda, a 43-year-old housewife in Tokyo, bought a Wii for her two sons nearly three years ago. Her boys, now 12 and 7 years old, played the Wii often at first and constantly asked for new games. However, in recent months, the boys have stopped asking for new games. The younger boy still plays with the Wii, but the elder son is now asking for Sony’s PlayStation Portable, a handheld with games geared toward more traditional gaming fans.

“Maybe the Wii’s software, designed for families, is not as exciting,” said Ms. Kaneda about her elder son’s request for a PSP.

Ms. Kaneda herself isn’t much into the Wii either. She tried Wii Sports a few times, but then stopped playing. She said she now prefers the free games that she downloads onto her Apple Inc. iPhone.

While Nintendo’s Wii has far outsold rivals and continues to be the top seller outside Japan, sales of Sony’s PlayStation 3 surpassed those of the Wii in Japan last month. Sony sold 146,948 PS3 consoles for the month, while 99,335 Wii units were sold, according to Enterbrain. Microsoft sold 43,172 Xbox 360 consoles.

Overall, the Japanese game market has been in a slump, with sales dropping 18% in the fiscal year ended in March. Soft domestic demand prompted Nintendo in January to lower its sales forecasts for Wii consoles and software for the fiscal year.

Nintendo also cut its sales forecast for DS games, but raised its outlook for the device because of the introduction of a new model, the DSi. Thinner with a larger screen and a built-in camera, the DSi was released in November in Japan and came out this month in the U.S. and Europe.

Despite its lead in game consoles, Nintendo has had less success than rivals getting Wii owners to buy a large catalog of games for their machines.

Nintendo has sold roughly 6.9 games for every Wii console while Sony has sold 7.3 software titles per PlayStation 3 machine as of the end of December. Nintendo’s figures would be even lower if not for the inclusion of Wii Sports, which comes free with the Wii console, and Wii Play, which is bundled with an additional controller.

Microsoft said in March that it had sold 8.2 games per Xbox 360 machine though it didn’t specify over what time period. However, those figures are only for the U.S. and are helped by a one-year head start on the PS3 and Wii, allowing it more time to sell games.

Because of continued sales growth overseas and weakness at home, Japan now accounts for 13% of Nintendo’s total sales compared with 32% two years ago.

Meanwhile, with more of its revenue generated in euros and U.S. dollars, Nintendo’s earnings have grown more exposed to the negative impact of a stronger yen, which decreases revenue made overseas when converted back into the Japanese currency.

Source: Wall Street Journal Asia 04/08/09

 

I say this is crap, and possibly Sony-PR-influenced crap if possible.

I am not trying to be an idiot, but Nintendo seems to have the kind of appeal to people of all ages and gender that Sony lacks. The Wii is more mass-market than PS3, it's plain to see. Mothers like Wii. For god sake old people play the Wii as well. Sony will never have that kind of broad mass appeal with the PS3, it's just not the same thing. It's a hight tech cutting edge supercomputer that plays Blu Ray...my mother probably never heard of blue ray, but sure as hell knows the Wii.

 

does this mean i can have my hobby back?

 

What I found odd in that article is that they say that people who play the same game over and over again are casuals...lol VF addicts are casuals! KN was right after all.

then the 43 years old lady said she tired of Wii games, fair enough, but she never said ""now Im going to get a PS3 and KILLZONE 2 DUDE"

I find it odd that when the PS2 was selling singstar and Buzz to the masses everybody was happy, but now that people play Wii Fit all of a sudden claim our hobby has died....

I don't have a Wii yet but I'd like to get one for when Zelda comes out.

 

No... but very few are the hardcore gamers who buy a console for one game and one game only. I like fighting games more than any other genre, but I have over 10 games in my PS3 library. I'm sure that's the kind of gaming culture the article is talking about as opposed to casual gamers who buy a console, play Wii Sports a few times and then leave it collecting dust on the side.

The 43 year old lady did say she is buying a PSP though. Another "hardcore" gadget. The point of the article isn't to praise the PlayStation, hardly so, the focus is how the Wii's business model can't sustain itself. I've been saying this since its release. The gaming industry is sustained by software, but the software appeal depends on hardware progression. The Wii went against the norm, it worked fine alienating a new market share, but with no good software coming out for it and an old technology behind it, it fails to keep gamers entertained. That's the difference between the Singstar/Rock Band's and the Wii's business models. They are in current generation consoles, not alienating the userbase with old technology, so the gamers are fine with that. And that's why they didn't "kill" the hobby (I don't think the Wii did either, but I understand where people are coming from).

 

* Wii Sports (40.5 million)[67]
* Wii Play (20.91 million)[67]
* Wii Fit (14.01 million)[67]
* Mario Kart Wii (13.67 million)[67]
* Super Smash Bros. Brawl (8.1 million)[67]
* Super Mario Galaxy (7.66 million)[68]
* Mario Party 8 (6.28 million)[68]
* The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (4.52 million)[68]
* Link's Crossbow Training (3.44 million)[67]
* Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (3.4 million)[69]


* Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (12 million)[104]
* Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec 14.89 million shipped)[96]
* Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (9.21 million approximately: 8.2 million in US,[19] 410,293 in Japan,[105] 600,000 in UK)[32]
* Grand Theft Auto III (7.509 million approximately: 6.55 million in US,[19] 358,917 in Japan,[105] 600,000 in UK)[32]
* Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty (7 million)[106]
* Final Fantasy X (6.6 million)[107]
* Final Fantasy XII 5.2 million shipped)[110]
* Kingdom Hearts 5.9 million shipped including Kingdom Hearts Final Mix and Ultimate Hits)[111]
* Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King 4.88 million shipped)[115]
* Madden NFL 2005 (4.35 million in US)[19]


One of these lists is not like the other . . .

 

I wonder if they are counting the copies of Wii Sports bundled with the Wii and the copies of Wii Play bundled with Wii Remotes or if that is just the amount of individual copies sold?

The amount of copies sold on those two scares me.

 

They are counting bundles.

 

DV I think Nikolas shares your feelings,

But I don't. I totally disagree with you on all fronts. I think the Playstation brand destroyed gaming as it was supposed to be, and now they got destroyed by Nintendo who understands what games are all about. Not BLUE RAY and shit, but pure simple gaming fun.

 

I hated the years of GTA3-VC-SA and I wished so hard they would just go away and let me play my stupid games without having to hear about murdering prostitutes and being COOL. Thank got it's all in the past now.

 

What are the [bracketed numbers] ???

 

Yep. 1 interests me and the other doesn't. Take it a step further. If it wasn't for mario galaxy and zelda then the Wii list might as well be an atari as far as i'm concerned..
...
...
...that's not fair atari has a nostalgia factor going for it.

 

You are referring to total numbers yes? The topic post was about change in customer behaviour and people not buying wii games anymore..

 

Oh that's what this thread is about!

I totally disagree then, just look at HotD and Madworld on Wii, both recent games and they sold damn well. Even No More Heroes sold well, it's like Wii has some mystical powers.

Seriously can't imagine those games selling well on any other console.

 

lol feck. That is an awesome strategy. If we make all sucky games...our mediocre games will sell better. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/laugh.gif

 

Those three games Feck mentioned aren't sucky.

 

both nintendo and sony have had adverse effects on the gaming industry.

i mean, smash bros and tekken. enough said.

 

The bracketed numbers are references, cut & paste from wikipedia. Pack in is relevant because it's part of nintendo's strategy; rock band sales numbers aren't any less meaningful because of the instruments.

I'm not talking about differences in sales numbers. I'm talking about the sad truth that, whether you like or dislike individual games on the PS2 list . . . they are games, unlike the toys at the top of the wii list. I dont give two shits for GTA or madden, but they at least involve a modicum of skill and decision making: there is a clear relationship between choices made, the inputs made based on those choices, and the effect of those inputs.

You have to get all the way down to mario kart on the wii list (ok, a couple of the wii play titles are actually games) before that's the case. And even mario kart is intentionally heavily randomized so that "casual" players have a higher chance of winning.

Matteo can talk about singstar all he wants, but the PS2 also had a vibrant and diverse lineup of successful GAMES from multiple PUBLISHERS in multiple GENRES. The wii has first party NINTENDO titles, primarily aimed at people who want TOYS, not games; that's all that's succeeding on the wii. Any trend to change that, whether it's the wii failing or real games being successful on the wii, is fine by me.

 

Iwata is obviously being paid by Sony to say this.